Winners & Losers of 2006 elections

Winners

1. Congress

The outcome of this elections couldn't have been better for the Congress. Not only did the party win a spectacular 34 out of the 48 seats, they also managed to get their main ally the DMK to win many seats in their traditional strong holds in southern Tamil Nadu especially in the Tirunelveli and Kanyakumari districts. The result virtually ensure a stable government for the party at the centre since the DMK is dependent on its support in the state. Moreover, its win in Pondicherry ensures its supremacy in the Union Territory. Their only major setback was the loss of their leader in the assembly SR Balasubramanium in Thondamutur.

2. Vijaykanth

Captain surprised all political pundits (including myself ;-)) by performing spectacularly this election. His new party with no big names managed to poll significant number of votes in almost all regions of the state. Moreover, the victory of Vijaykath at Virrudachalam in a Vanniyar heartland blew over the myth over PMK's supremacy in that region due to caste support. His theme of providing a credible alternative to the Dravidian parties resonated with many people. His clout is bound to increase in the next elections. His only problem is if he can transfer his vote bank in case he decides to align with any one of the two Dravidian parties.

3. Dyanidhi Maran

A surprising winner this election was Telecommunication Minister Dyanidhi Maran. He campaigned for DMK candidates all the state and was more visible to the public than the heir apparent MK Stalin. Moreover, he has claimed credit for drafting the DMK's manifesto which even P Chidambaram claimed was the hero of this election. Expect him to play a behind the scenes role in state politics.

4. Lok Paritran

Well not many people even heard about Lok Paritran before this election. But, their performance this election will definitely make people take notice of them. In constituencies like Mylapore, Lok Paritran did better than established parties like the DMDK and BJP. This is mainly because of the extensive support they have received from the working class people and new college graduates. The future will be bright for them if they can better highlight their agenda to the masses and make themselves visible in rural areas of the state.

Losers

1. Vaiko

The biggest loser this election is un doubtly MDMK's chief Vaiko. Many people expected his decision to align with the ADMK to severely affect the DPA's prospects in southern Tamil Nadu. Quite on the contrary, the ADMK alliance was routed in the region. This means that much of his vote bank has returned to the parent party, the DMK. His clout is bound to decrease. Moreover, the new DMK government will ensure that life is difficult for him. I won't be too surprised if he spends another stint in jail during the next 5 years.

2. BJP & PMK

The second biggest loser this election is a tie. The BJP and PMK have lost a significant portion of its vote bank. While, the BJP performance was a foregone conclusion, PMK disastrous performance in its traditional area of influence surprised many. In many places, PMK candidates scraped through with meagre margins. Ramdoss' hold on the Vanniyar community is disintegrating. Furthermore with Vijaykanth taking his battle to the PMK, expect the party to suffer more losses in the near future. BJP on the other hand performed miserable in all places. Even the upper caste who traditionally vote for the BJP seem to have alienated the party.

3. Sarath Kumar

Like Vaiko he left the DPA before the elections. He was apparently miffed at not being given a ticket to contest. But his switch to the ADMK didn't make too much of a difference. The Nadar community to which he belongs has remained by and large with the DPA. Also, the future doesn't look too promising for him in the ADMK. He is not likely to be given a MP seat by the ADMK. Moreover, his wife's relationship with SUN TV will not be as cosy as it used to be.

4. MK Stalin

While one would think DMK's victory would be favorable to MK Stalin, this election threw up a surprise. MK Stalin kept a low profile. He wasn't covered much by SUN TV. His own victory in Thousand Lights was far from convincing. In fact he managed to scrape through with a margin of 2,500 votes. He would really have to make a mark as a minister, otherwise Dayanidhi Maran might surpass him in popularity within the party.

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2 comments so far

  1. Pi on

    Inspite of the attention that Dayanidhi Maran has received, Stalin has been set up (not necessarily, deserving) for chiefministership. He’s been DMK Youth Wing President, Chennai’s Mayor and now, minister. The question is how acceptable is he now to the others in the DMK.

  2. Harihara Sundar on

    If u go by numbers then yes Congress is a winner..But if have to answer the question “Has congress regained its lost ground” then i would say no. Beacause Congress victory has to be attributed to a lot of facts like
    1) being in alliance with DMK
    2) Contested winnable constituencies
    etc

    The true strength of a party can be assessed only when it takes on the poles by itself [or with lesser known parties].

    But DMDK has made a good mark in its debut …


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