Exit Poll Analysis

With just one day left before the votes are officially counted, I taught it would be a good time to analyze the results of the exit polls that were conducted yesterday. An impressive 70% of the people voted in yesterday's election. Normally, a high voter turnout is never good for the ruling party since it implies a vote for change. Moreover, people were less inclined to give the ADMK led government another chance. According to the CNN-IBN poll, just 39% of the voters wanted to give Jayalalitha's government another chance, where as 54% wanted it removed from power. This certainly doesn't bode well for ADMK or its alliance partners.

Clash of Personalities

An interesting statistic from the CNN-IBN poll is that Karunanidhi has overtaken Jayalalitha as the favorite choice for Chief Minister. Since, in Tamil Nadu its always a clash of personalities this is another huge setback for the ADMK alliance. Also according to exit poll, about 10% of the people pick Vijaykanth as their choice for Chief Minister. This is a remarkable achievement for the film actor. He polls significantly higher than MK Stalin, the heir apparent of the DMK party and son of Karunanidhi, who gets a meagre 1%.

DMDK Factor

One of the confusions in this election is the effect of Vijaykanth's DMDK party. The exit poll gives the DMDK party a 10% vote share. In its earlier opinion poll, he got just 5%. This time around no statistics as to whose vote share he eats into is provided. But, in their earlier poll Vijaykanth's had 49% of his votes coming from the DMK and about 20+% coming from ADMK.

Caste Factor

DMK has a lead among almost all caste groups. This is certainly surprising. The DMK even has a small lead among voters from the dominant Thevar community, who normally vote overwhelmingly for the ADMK. As expected, DMK lead is most significant among Christians and Muslims. It looks like even the repealling of the controversial anti-conversion bill didn't seem to have too much of an impact. This time around, even the upper caste vote goes to the DMK. The arrest of Jayendra Saraswati might have been the reason for this.

The route of PMK & MDMK

The biggest losers of this election are expected to be PMK and MDMK. The DMK's alliance with PMK didn't seem to help it too much in northern Tamil Nadu. In fact, the ADMK provides the strongest resistance to the DPA in the north, normally a strong hold of the PMK. But an even bigger loser might be Vaiko's MDMK. It was his departure from the DPA that was expected to make this election close. The MDMK was expected to help ADMK route the DPA alliance in the south. That certainly didn't happen. Expect the MDMK to win just a couple of seats out of the 35 odd seats it contested.

But, one must not forget that exit polls have never been accurate in Tamil Nadu. While they have usually been able to pick up the trend of the election, their forecasts have always been far off from the actual results. But for the moment it certainly looks like advantage DMK. Stay tuned for live results on May 11th.

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1 comment so far

  1. anbazhagandv on

    Each party has its basic vote bank. This will not be disturbed by any kind of wave which would be even more than assasination of Rajiv Gandhi.

    By adding this permanent vote bank of each party to AIDMK and DMK group respectively, I easily arrived the following prediction before the counting of votes starts :-

    AIDMK allies 30
    DMK allies 204
    It is learnt from various opinion polls that votes got by new arrival Vijaykanth mostly belong AIDMK.
    If Sankarachariar factor also acts against AIDMK my prediction will be following:-
    DMK allies will surely sweep in this election.


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