Election Day

A record 70% of the 4.63 crore eligible voters exercised their franchise today for the assembly elections in Tamil Nadu. Barring a few small incidents, voting was by and large peacefull in all the 234 assembly constituencies. Both Jayalalitha and M Karunanidhi expressed optimism of winning the elections and forming the government on their own.

Exit Poll Predictions

[Update #1] The Star News – AC Nielsen Poll predicts a big win for the DMK led DPA alliance. The exit poll predicts the DPA front will win about 175 seats and the ADMK will win in 51 seats. In terms of vote share, 48% goes to the DMK led alliance and 37% goes to the ADMK led alliance.

[Update #2] Official CNN-IBN Exit Poll numbers are expected to be released at 9:30 pm IST.

[Update #3] M Karunanidhi emerges as the most popular choice for Chief Minister according to the CNN-IBN Poll. He gets 41% while his arch-rival J Jayalalitha gets 35%. Interestingly, Vijaykath gets a spectacular 10% while Karunanidhi's son MK Stalin gets only 1%. This certainly is huge for the DMK. In all the previous opinion polls, Karunanidhi has been trailing Jayalalitha by atleast a few percentage points.

[Update #4] An Exit Poll conducted by Times Now TV channel & Hansa predicts a win for the DMK alliance. According to their survey, the DMK led DPA alliance is expected to get 150 seats, while the ADMK led DPF alliance is expected to get 81 seats.

[Update #5] The CNN-IBN Hindu Exit poll also predicts a comfortable win for the DMK alliance. They predict the DMK alliance to win between 157-167 seats and the ADMK alliance in 64-74 seats. The poll expects the DMK alliance to get 45% of the popular vote, while the ADMK alliance will get 35% votes. The DMDK party polled an impressive 10% of the popular vote. Things must be pretty gloomy in the ADMK camp with exit poll after exit poll predicting a comfortable win for the DMK.

[Update #6] The ADMK government was viewed favorably by just 39% of the voters. 54% of the voters rate it unfavorably. Also DMK had solid backing among men, and old people. It also looks like the DMDK had managed to cut significantly into the ADMK vote bank.

[Sincere thanks to Karthik Guruswamy for the live updates]

Stay tuned as we bring live election results on May 11th.


4 comments so far

  1. Karthik on

    Now then…
    You’ve got the power, Deliver!

  2. Doctor Bruno on

    Last time Time and Netrikan predicted Jaya will win… ALl other media before election were of the same opinion that DMK will win…But surprisingly exit polls in 2001 predicted an ADMK win…..

    Coming to 2004 Lok Sabha elections, all were of the opinion that BJP is going to win… In fact What they predicted was correct, if you take Andhra and Tamil Nadu out of the results and analyse…. The north Indian media can never understand the South Indian politics (kerala, AP and TN)….

    And in TN also, no one predicted that DMK will sweep 40/40……

    Before blaming the polls (opinion and exit) as the the accuract, You should see that it is the RULING PARTY WHICH HAS TO BE CAUTIOUS and not the opposition…. Opposition has won after opinion polls have shown a trend in favour of Ruling, but a RULING PARTY HAS NEVER WON WHEN THE OPINION POLL HAS FAVOURED THE OPPOSITION. The reason is simple…..

    There are two kinds of anti-incubency 1. Against the CM(or PM) and 2. Against your MLA (or MP) who never turned up after the result….

    Then first anti incubency alone comes out in the opinion poll, where as the second one comes as a shock for the ruling party on the day of counting. It was for this reason, KK received a shock in 2001 and Vajpayee (and most of the India) in 2004.

    Polls taken during March 15 showed a trend favouring JJ. How did the trend change by Apr 30. The reason is very simple. “Even though I am satisfied with CM, I do not want to vote for this MLA” is the popular opinion. This exactly is the reason why KK lost in 2001 and KK in 2006

  3. Prabhu on

    Looks like its the final bell for ADMK govt. I feel just the alliance-vote-bank has defeted ADMK. MDMK is for a shocker after the results are out. Vaiko is going to be ridiculed like anything.

  4. SunTVian on

    I think the Sun TV ad shown in the last days before the poll was quite strong. Without any words, they showed an octogenarian (Karunanidhi) being manhandled by a bunch of policemen, Murasoli Maran being physically lifted and carried to a van, a temple elephant being tortured (so it could go to a holiday outing!) and beatings of state employees.

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