Dead Heat – CNN IBN Poll

Late Yesterday, CNN IBN came out with their pre-poll predictions for the upcoming assembly elections Tamil Nadu. They predicted a dead heat with a slight advantage for the ADMK front. But that was within the margin of error. This poll proves one thing: The ADMK has made up the huge margin that it was defeated in the last Lok Sabha election. Remember the DMK and its allies polled 52% as opposed to 35% by the ADMK. Thats a margin of 17%. The DMK allies have remained more or less intact with the exception of Vaiko's MDMK. ADMK has been able to erase all of that and even established a slender lead.

This also means that ADMK is well ahead of the DMK in a one-on-one race. Its the DMK allies (PMK, Congress, and the Left parties) that have helped it close the difference. But there are a few bright spots for the DMK. The DMK support is more concentrated. This means it might able to win a higher percentage of seats with a lower vote share. But ADMK should be very pleased with this poll prediction. With a large list of campaigners they have a good chance of pulling ahead with less than a month left before the polls.

CNN-IBN Opinion Poll Results

ADMK – 46%
DMK – 44%
DMDK – 5%
BJP – 1%


10 comments so far

  1. Vijay Krishna on

    Very much on expected lines. This seems like the closest fight TN has witnessed in the last few decades.

    And (Gaapdan) Vijayakanth getting 5% of the vote share? Did they miss a decimal point somewhere?

  2. siva kumar on

    DMK alliance will win the election with a majority. Numerous times in the past poll predictions have favoured the incumbent but the actual results were strongly in favour of the opposition.
    In 2001 elections NDTV predicted total victory for DMK based on the absence of any significant anti-incumbency factor. However AIADMK was the clear winner. This time too these polls under-estimate the strong desire for change the people of TN have come to display at elections in the last two decades.

  3. Anonymous on

    ADMK is now very strong and the rural votes especially in southern Tamilnadu already decided for ADMK.
    ADMK will even win more segments in Chennai and suburban.

    ADMK alliance will sweep the election and they suruely get 175++ seats.

  4. luckylook on

    DMK will get simple majority…. The Crowd in Election meetings shows this…. Karunanidhi attracted people verymuch than Jaya this time…. His Colour TV, Rs. 2 Rice Schemes are the talk of the town now….

    I think DMK Alliance will get more than 200 seats…


    DMK WILL GET 160-180 Seats


    Jayalalitha will be defeated in ANDIPATTI


    Next CM: Karunanithi
    DMK Front:160-180
    Durai Murugan:win
    PTR Palanivel Rajan:win
    Vijayakanth: win

  8. Anonymous on

    Yes the entire trend of Tamil Nadu election view is changed…. few weeks ahead it was thought that ADMK alliance will win the assembly and will be back to the throne but after the parties various campaign has entirely changed……. now the poll prediction is as follows….
    DMK Alliance = 140+ above
    AIADMK Alliance = 80 – 85
    Others = 15+ above

  9. Anonymous on

    TN results

    ADMK ++ – 132
    DMK ++ = 98
    DMDK – 3
    Independent – 1

  10. siva kumar on

    Very much on expected lines.

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