How they stack up?

The seat-sharing arrangement of the two major fronts is out. And it makes interesting reading, into the minds of the alliance leaders, that is.

Everywhere there is talk of coalitions in politics. The positives and the downsides of this have been argued ad nauseum, so I have nothing to add to it. Except that coalitions are here to stay. This is because politicians find it easy to divide territories along casteist lines. In the future, we might have political parties forged to protect the interests of micro-communities. So don't be surprised if there springs up a new party with the sole agenda of demanding equal rights for the "34th descendant of the late Shyama Sastry (1609 – 1658) of Needamangalam".

The DMK, as analysts point out, has allocated seats in such a way as to signify that it ackowledges its readiness for coalition politics. Contesting just 129 seats, the DMK needs to have a winning rate of 91.5% to form a government on its own. Many political watchers have termed this as yet another master-stroke by Mr. Karunanidhi. He has been generous in awarding seats to the coalition partners, more than what they might have expected themselves.

On the contrary, the ADMK is contesting 182 seats. One can easily discern two reasons behind this. First, the ADMK's coalition comprises of only one large party (the MDMK). The other parties have all been allotted only single-digit seats. Secondly, and this is more important, the ADMK supremo still believes that her party has enough in it to form a government on its own.

Some may claim that the ADMK's confidence is not well-founded. But one must not forget that Ms Jayalalithaa triumphed in the 2001 elections almost single-handedly. True, the opposition wasn't as formidable then, yet the ADMK did the improbable then. This year's fight is similar – it is the DPA's numbers against Ms Jayalalithaa's charisma. Who Which will triumph? We'll know in six weeks' time.


5 comments so far

  1. Eshwar S on

    I think DMK led DPA is the clear front runner at the moment. But I think ADMK has closed the gap since the last Lok Sabha elections. But the DMK combine is extremely strong in the north. I think if DMK can have a good champaign then they have an outside chance of forming a majority. Otherwise, I think they will have to settle for a coalition. On the other hand, ADMK will have score heavily in the southern and western parts of TN to cause an upset.

  2. srivilly on

    I would beg to differ from ur views…Infact PMK which once had a strong ground in the northern part of the state has lost its ground since 1998.To counter the PMK’S effect in the north Jaya has included Dalit Panthers in her side …add to that Rajni’s fans who wud vow to take a revenge on Mr.Ramdass.So I think in the north by and large both are pretty much equal.I bet that it wud be a complete sweep in the south with the two parties having the highest influence in the south and that too strong among the wide spread communioties out It wud be a sweep for them in the south.MK is going to pay the price for having lost Vaiko.

  3. Madras Manade on

    I fully agree with Sri Villy.
    DPI will pose a tough fight with PMK. So its not going to be a cake walk for PMK. Dr.Ramadoss always urges people to speak in Tamil only. But his grandchildren (Anbumani’s children) do not study Tamil at all. Anbumani always dress in western fashion (Pant, shirt, suit, coat). See P.Chidambaram, Finance Minister. Inspite of being a product of Harward, he dress in tamil fashion. Surely, this doesnt go well with people.

    Avanga english padikkalam
    nam tamil mattume padikkanumaa?
    would be the reaction

    Coming down south
    Thevars and Telugus are dominant communities. So AIADMK and MDMK may together sweep South tamil Nadu. DMK is sure to be decimated in the South. In the west AIADMK-MDMK alliance may win Coimbatore which is the Telugu Kamma-bastion in Tamil Nadu.

  4. Doctor Bruno on

    Contrary to the popular belief, this year, DMK will score in south and ADMK in north.

  5. Sengi on

    DMK is just ahead of AIADMK. MK and co have to campaign hard to get a clear majority.

    The predominant advantage of DMK is the selection of candidates.This time they will score equally to AIADMK in the south TN. (It is due to KKSSR,APPAVU,K..pandian etc ..they all have good name on the people)

    In the western belt DMK will face a jolt.But definitely they will take a over all lead. Thanks to PMK for their allience with DMK to score over AIADMK in the northern region.

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