Battle for Tamil Nadu – An Analysis

As you have seen from most of my past blog entries, I have merely been presenting you with election news. This time I would like to be a bit different and offer some analysis. The way I see this election shaping up is that the DPA alliance is very strong and arithmetically they should be able to easily surpass the majority. However, winning an absolute majority won't be a cake walk for DMK. This is because alliance partners are playing hardball and the DMK is likely to end up contesting less number of seats that it had hoped. One has to remember that ADMK was able to win an absolute majority by only contesting 140 seats in the last election. The DMK would be hopping to repeat the same. On the other hand, all is not lost for the ADMK. Their game plan should be to form a pre-poll alliance with the DPI and the newly formed party headed by actor Vijaykanth. Both these alliance partners will be crucial for the ADMK since DPI has strong presence in northern TN and Vijaykanth is quite famous in the south. The ADMK must also try to present itself as the underdog and try to cash in on any sympathy it can gain due to this. Jayalalitha has missed out on an excellent opportunity to lure away alliance partners from the DPA. But all is not lost. If in the event the polls end up being close, she might be able to get a few parties to change sides from the DPA. But on the whole at this point I certainly see the DPA alliance on a strong wicket.


2 comments so far

  1. Kaps on

    I doubt whether Vijayakanth will partner with ADMK. But I can say without doubt that some votes which would have otherwise been garnered by the DMK-led alliance will now go in favour of Vijayakanth. Net Net, Amma stands to gain, but it remains to be seen whether she can come back to power. I would still put my money on the DMK alliance bcoz numbers are in their favour.

  2. Anonymous on

    Just letting you know.
    Great blog! Helps me keep upto date with TN elections while living in US.

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