ADMK’s AIFB problem – An Analysis

One of the problems that the ADMK must overcome to win this election will be to limit the vote share of the All India Forward Bloc (AIFB). AIFB is now headed by Tamil film actor Karthik and is contesting independently in about 62 seats this election (It earlier planned on contesting in 72 seats). The AIFB receives good support from the dominant Thevar community. This community voted overwhelmingly for the ADMK party in the previous elections, but this election it could be different. The reason for this is Karthik himself hails from the Thevar community and has a strong following within the community. Moreover, ADMK is now in alliance with the Dalit Panthers of India (DPI). A rivalry exists between the Dalit and Thevar communities in southern TN. This could result in loss of votes for the ADMK. A few days back during campaigning, Karunanidhi made a reference to this issue. The ADMK on the other hand has tried to play hard ball with Karthik faction of the AIFB. A number of AIFB candidates have been pressurized to switch over to the ADMK and not contest the election. A few others who refused to budge were threatened. With elections this close, ADMK seems to take no chances with the AIFB, but it remains to be seen if the damage can be curtailed.

Deccan Chronicle-AC Nielsen Opinion Poll

To add to the growing confusion among voters, the results of another opinion poll were released yesterday. This one was conducted by the Decaan Chronicle and AC Nielsen. The survey gives a waffer thin advantage to the ADMK. The survey predicts the ADMK led DPF alliance will get 48% of the popular votes and the DMK led DPA will get 47%. The DMDK will get about 4% of the total votes, majority of which comes from people in the 18-35 age range. The survey found that a majority of the people where extremely happy with the performance of the Jayalalitha government over the last 5 years. Overall, even though different surveys have been predicting different alliances to emerge victories, the percentage difference in vote share between the two major alliance in all the polls have been extremely small. This clearly leads to the conclusion that we will end up with a hung assembly.

Deccan Chronicle-AC Nielsen Opinion Poll

ADMK+ – 48%
DMK+ – 47%
DMDK – 4%