Dead Heat – CNN IBN Poll

Late Yesterday, CNN IBN came out with their pre-poll predictions for the upcoming assembly elections Tamil Nadu. They predicted a dead heat with a slight advantage for the ADMK front. But that was within the margin of error. This poll proves one thing: The ADMK has made up the huge margin that it was defeated in the last Lok Sabha election. Remember the DMK and its allies polled 52% as opposed to 35% by the ADMK. Thats a margin of 17%. The DMK allies have remained more or less intact with the exception of Vaiko's MDMK. ADMK has been able to erase all of that and even established a slender lead.

This also means that ADMK is well ahead of the DMK in a one-on-one race. Its the DMK allies (PMK, Congress, and the Left parties) that have helped it close the difference. But there are a few bright spots for the DMK. The DMK support is more concentrated. This means it might able to win a higher percentage of seats with a lower vote share. But ADMK should be very pleased with this poll prediction. With a large list of campaigners they have a good chance of pulling ahead with less than a month left before the polls.

CNN-IBN Opinion Poll Results

ADMK – 46%
DMK – 44%
DMDK – 5%
BJP – 1%